When trying to save the world, it helps to put things into a larger perspective by thinking about civilizations that may have already confronted these problems. In particular, astrophysicists, when we try to find evidence for life in outer space, rank possible civilizations that are more advanced than ours according to their energy consumption:
A. A Type I civilization is truly planetary, using up all the energy from their sun which lands on their planet. They might, for example, be able to control all forms of planetary energy, such as controlling the weather and the power of hurricanes and volcanoes.
B. A Type II civilization has mastered stellar power, using up all the energy released from their mother star. They use up 10 billion times more energy than a Type I civilization. A typical example might be the Federation of Planets in Star Trek, which has harnessed the energy from only a tiny sliver of the stars in the Milky Way galaxy.
C. A Type III civilization is galactic, harnessing 10 billions more energy than a Type II civilization. They roam freely across the galactic space lanes. A typical example might be the Borg on Star Trek, or the Empire of the Star Wars series, or the Empire of Asimov’s Foundation Series.
By comparison, what are we? Do we control the weather, play with stars, or harness the power of an entire galaxy? We are, sadly, a Type 0 civilization. We don’t even appear on the radar screen. We get our energy from dead plants, oil and coal.
But we can calculate how long it will take to slowly work our way up this energy scale. Assume that the world’s energy consumption grows at roughly 3% per year. At this rate, we are about 100 years from attaining Type I status, about several thousand years from attaining Type II status, and perhaps 100,000 years or so from attaining Type III status.
For example, I see evidence of this in every newspaper I read. To me, every headline points to the birth pangs of the emerging Type I planetary civilization:
- The language of this future Type I planetary civilization will be English, which is already the language of the elites around the world.
- The EU, NAFTA, and global trade blocks represent the seeds of a Type I economy.
- The internet is the beginning of a Type I telephone system.
- Rock music, youth culture, high fashion, the movies, etc. all represent the beginning of a Type I culture.
But some people instinctively hate this emerging Type I civilization, because it will be multi-cultural, progressive, and scientific. These are the terrorists.
How stable are these civilizations? By the time a civilization reaches Type II status, they are immortal. Nothing known to science can destroy these civilizations. Ice ages can be controlled, meteor or comets can be deflected, and they can even survive the death of their mother star by moving their planet or re-igniting their star.
But of all these transitions, the most dangerous of all is the transition between Type 0 and Type I. We still have all the savagery, sectarianism, racism, fundamentalist, etc. that typified our rise from the swamp. So it is not clear at all whether we will rise to a Type I civilization. I think it’s a race against time. On one hand, we have the march towards a planetary civilization, perhaps the greatest transition in human history. On the other hand, we have urgent problems like nuclear proliferation, global warming, designer germ warfare, pollution, over population, etc. that threatened the very survival of the planet.
It’s not clear which trend will win. But there is a lesson here. By rights, our galaxy should be teeming with intelligent life forms, yet we see no evidence of any so far, perhaps because they never successfully made the transition to Type I. One day, perhaps if ever visit these planets, we might find dead civilizations with an atmosphere too hot to bear life, or an atmosphere too radioactive for life.
But one thing is certain. The generation now alive is the most important generation that has ever walked the earth. This is because we will decide whether we will truly become a Type I civilization, or will descend into chaos and disorder. There have been about 5,000 generations of humans since we emerged from Africa about 100,000 years ago, and the most important generation is the one now alive, since we hold the destiny of civilization in our hands.
By Jared at 1:23 PM ON 08/01/08
In interpreting astrophysics, or ists, as you have particularized, a ways back when in the projection department, Shirley McClain's "Out on a limb" was very intriguing and although I've never had the pleasure, it still to this day contains the same perceptive inspiration.
In astrophysing to carbon dated previous us ezs', I'd have to say the detailed nature of the Artisian more intricately far endow trajectory results that have been many bridges out and beyond instead of just being the type 0 civilization we may now just be exiting in our civilized existence.
Although we are learning now with global warming issues that trace roots clearly define un-yet "still finished" business, integrations are now taking on the physical nature of our conscious and conscience interpretations.
As far as the proliferation status of nucleuc disruption and bio-unfairs, I agree that savagery to dominate has us in the less than zero department. However, with the expansion of Nafta in a fair & needing reformed solvency that gives the originators, ie; US Americans a more adamant structured foundation, then maybe our type 1 civilized grandeur can maybe leap into the type 2 classification if we are to encounter extraterrestrial inhabitants.
A thought projection that zentreprenuers have duly acclimatized with a need for respect in the history books is that IQ = energy that never ceases to exist & EQ = chaos that never exists to cease, and that is a reality in universal solar systems that'll put a spin in everyone's headrestassureds.
Ousty...
By Tomay321 at 4:11 AM ON 08/08/08
Perhaps there is already proof in the abduction phenomenon. I believe, however inexperienced in the phenomenon myself, that it seems quite possible that we are being visited by a higher type civilization. I also believe that we are simply being observed as much as possible by these higher intelligences. It would be my understanding that interference would not be in our nature as well if we were put into the same type class or category as a higher intelligent race.
By Hyperspace at 9:48 AM ON 08/11/08
Please feel free to visit Dr. Kaku's personal web site at Http://www.mkaku.org
By jaseman125 at 2:48 PM ON 08/15/08
You've been watching too much Star Trek. If the internet is a type 1 technology then so is the printing press and the telephone. It's convienent that your predictions are based in the next 100 years, knowing that at age 60, you won't be around to account for them if they do not come true. Lets keep our predictions within our own lifetime, so that we will be able to tell you just how wrong you were.
By Boundless at 5:21 PM ON 08/18/08
Jaseman125, my opinion does not speak for Dr. Kaku, but I doubt that he made his predictions outside of his lifetime in an attempt to evade taking responsibility for them. If you have ever read any of his books, you'll notice that he has spent 10 years interviewing over 150 top scientists who are actively working on making the predictions come true. He’s not an idiot who speaks from ignorance. His time scale is based on energy consumption and the rate of increase that our requirement for energy is/has been experiencing.
By wima at 6:27 AM ON 08/19/08
All things are possible. Just ask an inventor!
By Chaser at 6:52 PM ON 08/30/08
While the man undoubtably is very intelligent, and very right about many things, he might have underestimated the barbarians amoung us. Like those who scream for acountability, 'make a desicion in your lifetime so we can call you what we want when it's wrong." Well, it's people and talk like that, unwilling to believe anything that doesnt suit them, that makes our chances at a Type 1 civilization almost none. While many of us love the idea of stellar travel and the excitment of seeing new worlds and meeting new people, others cant see past their next beer, or fixing the mower. It's a shame, because I've had some good dicusions with people who dont believe in much of anything, but take an hour to tell them a few facts, and they remarkably start to 'get it' then. I dont try to hurt anyones feelings, but it's true some people are very open minded, and others are closed minded, and anyone who cant take a few minutes to think something great just "Might be posible" then there's nothing more we can say.
By saintneko at 7:16 AM ON 08/31/08
We have mastered the technology of the seed, and the technology of portable enclosed environment. Well, perhaps not "mastered" but we are competent - it is possible that humanity could find a way to survive a planet-wide extinction event, because we have what none other on this planet possessed before us: the ability to extrapolate the future on increasingly longer and longer timelines. Projects are underway to preserve knowledge and seeds, the next step will be humans and that will be the hardest of them all. If an extinction event occurred tomorrow, life on the ISS would continue, albeit towards only one ultimate end, weeks to months beyond human existence on the surface.
Portable habitats, non-portable but sealed habitats, computers, robots, bioform stasis and life extensions are a few ways we're already working on this problem, as we do all others, until we conquer it or it conquers us. The urge is an inexorable force, kin to gravity perhaps?
By Mathematica at 11:13 AM ON 08/31/08
Jaseman125, i'm sorry to say that you are an ignorant, close minded moron. I'm feel sorry that such people exist in the society, with people like you, society and technology will not be improved, luckily the majority out there aren't like you :-)
By Spaceman Spliff at 12:42 AM ON 09/01/08
quite interesting. logic is a fascinating thing. i think comment boxes like these are part of the problem, and one of the worst aspects about the internet. however, it allows a dialog between nearly everyone, which is helpful when looking for new ways of looking at things. so much bickering is detracting from topic at hand. I feel honored to be able to listen to the ideas of one of our great thinkers, Dr. Kaku, and i am saddened to see the very probable cause of human downfall he touched on so eloquently, displayed in some of the earlier posts.
Thanks Dr. Kaku!
PEACE
By jaseman125 at 1:47 PM ON 09/01/08
Please do not missunderstand me - I love the idea that we could have all the things you have mentioned, and there is no question that Dr Kaku is a very intelligent man and I respect him very much. I've read his book Physics of the impossible, and regularly read physorg.com, and listen to explorations radio show, etc. I saw a photo recently showing how Rand Corporation predicted a home computer will look in the year 2004 (http://www.techsavvyed.net/wp-content/uploads/2006/06/computer_model_large.jpg) and it made me realize that a pattern is occuring. The optimism of the 1950's is making a return. Let's just remember that just because we really want space elevators and 83% efficient solar panels, it does not necessarily follow that we will achieve it. This was the purpose of my comment, and not to slur the reputation of Dr Kaku. Regards, Jason.
By jaseman125 at 3:19 PM ON 09/01/08
Ammendum.... It is very important to have dreams and aspirations - Without them we would not achieve anything. For scientists (Particularly theoretical)who are very close to a subject, and think upon it constantly, I expect that there is a chance that they can lose sight of the reality, allowing themselves to stretch credibility and perspective further and further. On such occasions and with hindsight a casual observer (Such as those who might read this blog), may be able to stand back and say... Although there are elements of truth, that we got carried away with the fantastic. In 50 years time, I imagine Dr Kaku and Ray Kurzwiel's statements will be looked upon in the same way that the 50's scientists are looked upon now. They could not foresee the tiny transistors of a microchip. They had the general idea right, but the shape of the future will be far different to how we may speculate now. We do not yet wear silver suits, drive hover cars, and every home does not have a humanoid robot to do the ironing and cooking. I imagine if Dr Kaku has time to read the blog comments, that he would welcome some positive arguement/comment from people outside of his field of work, rather than only receiving compliments.
By Jasmin929 at 4:02 PM ON 09/01/08
I think Jaseman125 has a valid point, he has pointed out how previous predictions have not neccassarily worked out as planned, therfore future predictions will also lack a sense of reality. However, i think what he's forgetting is that for anything to be discovered some one has to start of with some kind of image/idea, you have to have something in mind to aim for - it's true that often that specific goal isn't always achieved but that's not to say the discovery is without use. They actually build a foundation for other scientists to work on, for example we thought the Earth was flat, now we know it's oblate spheroid. You're right in saying the future will be different from our predictions, but what do you suggest, that we lay on our backs and wait to see what happens. Theory's are progression, a part of our human nature and the reason ithink we have a chance to bacome a Type1 civilisation.
By jaseman125 at 5:31 PM ON 09/01/08
Jasmin929 - I agree on the whole with what you have said. When you create a blog you plant the seed - idea or thought and then welcome others to comment. Some will try to pick the idea to pieces and others will try to defend it. Writing the blog has only been worthwhile if something can be learned from the debate, and perhaps some people may change their mind, or their thoughts may branch out in new directions. In my first comment I tried to trigger the 'picking apart' of the idea. I absolutely do not believe we should lay on our backs. I personally do not see the internet as a distinction between type 0 or type 1 (Any more than other advances in technology). I think what Dr Kaku is talking about is the power of cooperation on a global scale. Perhaps he envisages a unified government. These ideals almost parallel Communism or lead to a utopian dream. In fact it is conflict and differences of opinion which drive progress. This is what put man on the moon. So what I am saying is that it's great for us to disagree. I am sure we are mature enough to keep the debate from descending into personal attacks, or to be offended if someone elses idea seems moronic, or conflict, etc. It is the right of everyone to have an opinion. In response to statements that my mind is closed to ideas, I can say that I am open to change my opinion, or be convinced against it, otherwise it is pointless for me to take part in the debate. Hurling abuse at me here really will not bother me, and even if Dr Kaku perceives my comment as abusive, he will rise above it and try to get something positive from the blog. Sorry if I am going off subject somewhat!
By jaseman125 at 6:03 PM ON 09/01/08
...To get back on subject....
'Rock music, youth culture, high fashion, the movies, etc. all represent the beginning of a Type I culture'.
I wonder what lead Dr Kaku to that conclusion. Why is Rock music the beginning of a Type I culture, and not Jazz or Classical music? I am sure that many years ago when the first classical music was made public, people made similar statements - That this is a more civilized age - Music for the elite of society. Also I would like to understand what makes current 'high fashion' stand out as 'Type I' from other fashions historically. It seems to me that he simply lists things which he personally likes of current culture as being Type I. Im sure many people on the planet would question why English language over others is somehow the chosen language of the future. Many of the great mathematicians and scientists (I won't list them here) spoke French for example. I would put it to you that we are too embedded in the culture of here and now to be objective.
By jaseman125 at 6:31 PM ON 09/01/08
'We still have all the savagery, sectarianism, racism, fundamentalist, etc. that typified our rise from the swamp.' - Again this goes back to what I said about conflict = progress. Without the 'savagery' present, we would soon be going back to the swamp! Without competition and disagreement you would reach stagnation (Exactly what occured in the Soviet and other Communist states).
By SarkTR at 4:21 PM ON 09/04/08
Philosophy envisions future and the insight of the inexplicable theories right where science has no proof for it, and science takes a leap at the point trying to prove what is ridiculous at the time ideas are put forward, and science follows as the picklock to these theories. Future stems from visions, and that's what Dr. Kaku does.
By Jaseman125 at 5:58 PM ON 09/05/08
As well as considering all possibilies, should we not also consider probabilities? I am guessing that the mission of this website is to 'save the world', and since we have yet to find any evidence of Type I, II or III civililizations, I would focus on what we can do and know - here and now as a Type 0 civilization. I may be wrong, but my understanding of Dr Kaku's opening statement is that he believes the only way we can 'save the world' is to make a transition to Type I. We would cease to get our energy from fossil fuels and rely entirely on solar energy, and that 'we' would control/tame weather, tides, wind, clouds, temperature, and nature, to create a perfect balance. Presumably to achieve Type 1, we need to resolve all conflicts between nations so as to harness all the power globally, and 'we' all agree upon how best to make this world balance. Lets say we could control weather and decide to have less rain in Europe and divert it to Africa and the Middle East. The consequences for putting total control of the planet into the hands of humans could be disasterous. It just doesn't sit well with me that people would have such power. If we could control the world safely, then it would be fine, but it is nature's way that we are born greedy, and I can see there would be arguement over who gets all the best weather, or we would all have the same climate everywhere. I put more faith in the hands of nature to keep the right balance of weather, etc. I don't see that we are heading toward some apocalyptic age, and even on the subject of global warming, I am yet to see evidence of mass devastation. I would question if the world needs saving, or if it is our place to save it. We have achieved great technological mastery, but we are nowhere near having power over nature. So perhaps Dr Kaku would consider me a terrorist for not wanting a Type I transition. I am all for being multi-cultural, and I don't think we will descend into chaos if we do not become a Type I civilization. How can we achieve weather controlling power in the next 100 years? I don't know of any progress or research into that area. We would need to be able to move clouds around for a start. Any Ideas? How could our world be sustainable if we were all immortal? Only by leaving it. I believe we will find ways to recycle our fossil fuels before they run out. It may be that we do harness more power from the sun, but we still need other resources taken from the earth to survive. This process of recycling is part of the earth's survival system. The earth and its inhabitants have survived for thousands, maybe millions of years, so why should it suddenly stop doing so in the near future? I would think the highest probability is that we will continue to survive for quite some time yet... Well well beyond our lifetimes.
By Graham at 12:17 AM ON 09/07/08
Dr. Kaku hits on a very important point here. In order for us to progress, there needs to be a whole lot more collaboration. We all need to be involved in the progression of our species. No chance of moving to a Type I otherwise.
It's no longer good enough to just survive and make yourself comfortable. We also need to move beyond a leader-and-his-followers siloed system to something more of an active network of functional groups that have no distinct leaders, war heros or rock stars.
Time for the rest to step up...share your ideas, get involved, get your hands dirty. Do something to make things better for humanity or to help in the understanding of the universe.
By greencantalope at 10:22 PM ON 09/08/08
Jaseman125
I'd like a go a few posts back if you please.
You ask why would people choose English over their own laguage. Well, they actually are not choosing it over their own language. Every year, more and more countries incorperate English as a mandatory class to take in order to graduate fro school. Why?
Because over half the world speaks it, and that number grows each and every year. That was pretty blunt of you to say something like that, even without giving the notion of contemplating that fact. And if you did, then you are still at fault for not letting us know.
Now, heres is the problem that every single civilization faces across the universe. And that problem is the fact that beings can only imagine what they can comprehend. I will always stick by the phrase "nothing is impossible", and because of that, it drives people to dream and discover. And with every new discovery, our minds open ever wider to dream bigger, and farther than ever before.
You say that the internet is not a beginning type 1, telephone system. Which in definition, is a communication system. And a communication system can be a lot of things, but can only start out as a few. And one of those few is a "Language".
So lets look at this from a spectators view shall we.
We've got a language. (over a couple thousand)
We've established a writting system (over a thousand kinds)
We have invented a mailing system
We've created a telephone system
And now, we have the internet.
So, in case I missed some, we are at least at a stage 5 communication system. And whats next?
The hologram. And you cannot deny this, because just last month I think it was, a man projected himself, halfway across the world to his co-workers for a business meeting. This is purely straight from the imagination of science fiction.
The future is all around us. But because we live in it constantly, its hard to really notice, and marvel at what we have accomplished. And it seems to me that you are having a difficult time seeing the future, and more importantly, noticing it around you.
You say that we will not make it to a type 1 civilization. But think back, millions of people have looked up at the stars and dreamed of going up there, and seeing what it is like, and how it would feel, and what they would discover.
If you lived a hundred and years ago, and someone said they wanted, and believed that man will go to the moon. You'd be the person to shove their face in the ground and tell him the only place they will ever go is 6ft. below the ground.
Time stops for no one, (as of yet ^_^), but in the mean time, we have the choice to move with it, or get lost in it.
We are already living in the future, so why don't you start acting, and thinking like it.
By jaseman125 at 3:16 PM ON 09/13/08
I certainly forsee a future in which the internet will become immersive - Meaning that we will be able to be somewhere without actually being there. It's sort of like the holodeck on Star Trek, but I imagine it would work more in the form of having a robotic body which can be controlled remotely. It might look something like Asimo. You would sit at home and connect to this robot which may be at the other side of the planet. Your face would be projected onto the robot's face and it's movements would match your own, and you would see and hear what it senses, as if becoming the robot and being where it is.
I can see definate advantages to establishing a common language around the planet, and since my first language is English, I personally would have no problem with it. In the event of our 'remote robots' it may be the case that our words can be translated in realtime using voice recognition software. With such a technology, we would not have to worry about finding a common language. An early adaption of this system may be for us to type a message, and that message will be translated to whatever language required, and read out by a speach synthesizer. We may also make greater use of 'emoticons' as those you find in instant messenger software, or even sign language, which is universal.
So, I can tell you that I do not for some reason rule out or not consider future technologies. I think about such things often, and I embrace new technology.
I agree with you that we can only create as much as we can imagine. When one technology becomes commonplace, we look how we can improve upon it, or use it as a basis for the next stage of development. IE: Morse code carried over a wire became voice over a telephone, which then became fax and then internet, which then became a medium for video and audio, and then remote access/remote control.
We cannot deny that the planet has many diverse cultures, and is developing at different rates and in different ways. I thing there are some dangers in us all becoming the same. Diversity is important. But of course I accept that working to a common standard has great advantages. Being able to communicate easily with people around the globe will also help to accelerate our progress and development.
I would say that everything I have written in this post has nothing to do with saving the world though. Technology changes the world, but is it saving it? Some would argue that it may be making things worse.
By Anon at 4:49 PM ON 09/14/08
Watching to much Star Trek? The only reason things in movies become real is because of the influence it gives people. Science Fiction movies are created with the imagination, everyone talks about the latest effects. Then why not test them? If I wrote an entire science fiction novel that know one has read (assume the creativity is beyond that of any novel). Almost all of the ideas in the novel would not become real. Why? because know one talks about the book, however, if it was read by everyone and they made a movie they would... You may not be able to do anything with those ideas rather then create them. When scientists see them, they have the knowledge to work with imagination.
Sure predictions do not always come true. Lets say the future predicts unlimited energy from ocean water and the future is in two days. Tomorrow we found out that we do not need ocean water for energy because we just created unlimited energy from sand and that is much easier then creating energy from ocean water. Basically our needs change, better things are created.
As for people being barbarians... Education in this world sucks. People considered barbarians are the same as you and I. Computers, programmable OS of MAC, Windows, Linus and a thousand failures. Program us all with great education and let us use our imagination to survive and live in great numbers throughout the universe or program us to self destruct while a virus entangles our brains.
By TM Akashi at 10:49 PM ON 09/17/08
Have read the above comments and the question about whether humankind will make it to Type 1 (or even another 100 years) is the notion that most interests me. I have a hypothesis as to why humans do so many stupid things (WWI, WWII, Korean War, Vietnam, Iraq).
If you have ever seen a diagram of the human brain, there is the brain stem connected to a primitive inner brain. Fish, reptiles and birds primarily live with just a brain stem and primitive brain. The fight or flight response resides in that primitive brain, and those animals manage to eat, mate, and survive quite well with that primitive brain. Surrounding that primitive brain is the neo-cortex, where intelligence resides. The flaw that humans have is that we lack the ability to know which part of our brain is dominating.
As proof of this, all it would take is for a sexy girl to walk by and every guy would subconsciously drop into his primitive brain without realizing it. In an evolutionary sense, we have two (some say 3) brains, but fail to use the intelligent one when needed.
We teach our children to think in dualistisms (right and wrong, good and bad/evil, God and the Devil), but fail to teach adults that nothing is really dualistic. To make matters worse, we have U.S. Presidents who think dualistically (calling other countries evil or saying they are either with us or against us).
So, unless we start thinking intelligently (blocking that primitive brain) and correctly (resist corporate propaganda and realize that Everything is In-Between), we are likely to continue to do more stupid things with more deadly weapons in a world that is being polluted, over populated and our resources are being depleted. Al Gore proposed a rational first step, but we are too ignorant (people who ignore reality) to act.
By dawntime at 11:54 AM ON 09/28/08
I think our techonology has outstripped our spiritual/mental evolution. We are drawn to Star Trek because the series embodied a kind of functioning idealism that we have yet to achieve. Don't get me wrong, technology is great. However, it seems amiss that there are so many programs and videos for babies and toddlers out there. "Just park the tots in front of the screen & they will be brilliant". Almost a first step to a Borg development - and I think a step in the wrong direction. We need to value human interraction as much as we value our technology. Otherwise, we risk losing what it means to be human in the first place.
By jaseman125 at 9:05 AM ON 10/02/08
The technology is simply a tool that actually opens up more human interaction. Even a book is a form of technology. The first books had to be copied/rewritten by hand and were only available to a select few people. The printing press allowed thoughts and ideas to reach the masses, and television put the message out there visually in a way that was easy to understand. Now blogs allow feedback to the authors and interaction as there has never been in all of history. Without these developments, people would only know what was happening perhaps in their local communities through neighbourly chat. There was no perspective on global issues. I saw a documentary about tribes. At the end the production team allowed the tribe to watch the documentary that had been made and the reaction was immediate and astonishing. They had never seen themselves in this way or been able to see the contrast of their own lives with those of people outside of that particular culture. I don't think this process makes us lose what it means to be human, but it allows us to step outside of our own little living space and look upon the world with some perspective, and make choices about what are the best and worst elements of our diverse planet, and hopefully shape it into something better.
By Dani at 4:55 AM ON 11/07/08
You write very well.
By Vevina at 2:24 PM ON 11/09/08
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